Market Review: 28 June – 4 July 2026

Categories: CFD Trading  Forex Trading  Gold and Commodities Trading  

Publish date: 2026-7-7

 

 
Weekly Market Quick Update
Weak US Jobs Data Lifts Gold as Oil and USD Lose Momentum
Market Review: 28 June – 4 July 2026
Review: Jun 28 – Jul 4   Outlook: Jul 5 – Jul 11
📌 Weekly Market Overview
Global markets ended the shortened trading week with improving equity sentiment and changing expectations for US monetary policy. US indices recovered as easing Middle East supply concerns and lower oil prices reduced part of the inflation risk premium.
Softer-than-expected US employment data later reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike. This weighed on the USD and Treasury yields while supporting Gold. Oil remained near recent lows as Gulf exports recovered, although geopolitical headlines continued to create short-term volatility.
⚡ Market Snapshot
🥇 Gold / XAUUSD
Strong Weekly Rebound
Gold gained more than 2% for the week as weaker US employment data reduced near-term rate-hike expectations and pressured the USD.
🛢️ WTI / Brent Oil
Lower / Headline-Sensitive
Oil traded near four-month lows as Gulf exports recovered and supply-risk concerns eased. US-Iran developments remained an important volatility risk.
💵 EUR/USD
USD Momentum Eased
EUR/USD remained sensitive to US rate expectations. Softer jobs data reduced some support for the USD late in the week.
💴 USD/JPY
Rate-Sensitive
USD/JPY remained linked to US yields and rate expectations. Softer payroll data limited USD upside, while intervention risk remained in focus.
📈 US Indices
Recovery Led by Risk Sentiment
US30 reached a record close early in the week, while SPX500 and NAS100 recovered as lower oil prices and softer rate expectations supported sentiment.
🇯🇵 JPN225 / 🇭🇰 HKG33
Mixed Regional Performance
Asian indices reacted to changing global risk appetite, technology-sector volatility, China demand concerns and currency movements.
₿ Crypto / BTC & ETH
Mixed and Liquidity-Sensitive
Crypto remained sensitive to USD liquidity, institutional flows, regulation headlines and broader demand for risk assets.
📰 Key Market Drivers
US Labor Data: Softer payroll growth reduced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, supporting Gold and improving equity sentiment.
Oil Supply Recovery: Rising Gulf exports and restored shipping flows reduced part of the Middle East supply-risk premium.
Technology and Risk Appetite: AI-related investment remained supportive, although chip-sector profit-taking and valuation concerns continued to create volatility.
📅 This Week’s Key Data to Watch
Outlook period: 5 July – 11 July 2026. The US calendar is lighter after the payroll-heavy holiday week, but services data, FOMC Minutes, energy inventories and jobless claims may still create potential volatility.
Date Data / Event Market Expectation / Significance Impact Level
Jul 6
Monday		 US Final Services PMI & ISM Services PMI The data will provide an updated view of the largest part of the US economy. Weaker activity or softer price pressures may reduce rate-hike expectations and support Gold and risk assets. High
Jul 7
Tuesday		 US Trade Balance Changes in imports and exports may provide clues on domestic demand and global trade conditions. The release may influence USD sentiment but is normally less market-moving than inflation or employment data. Medium
Jul 8
Wednesday		 FOMC Minutes 
2:00 p.m. ET		 Markets will examine the internal discussion behind the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged. A more hawkish tone may support USD and yields, while signs of disagreement may support Gold and equities. High
Jul 8
Wednesday		 EIA Crude Oil Inventories Inventories will be closely watched after recent large stock declines and higher refinery activity. An unexpected draw may support Oil, while a build may add downward pressure. High
Jul 9
Thursday		 US Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 a.m. ET		 Market estimates point to approximately 218K, compared with 215K previously. A larger increase may reinforce concerns about labor-market cooling and weigh on USD. Medium
Calendar note: The US CPI report is not scheduled during this outlook week. The official June CPI release is scheduled for Tuesday, 14 July 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Event timing and market expectations may change; please confirm the latest calendar before trading.
👀 What Traders Should Watch
Gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and US indices may react strongly to the FOMC Minutes and services data. Oil may remain particularly sensitive to EIA inventories and Middle East headlines. Potential trading opportunities may emerge if policy signals or economic data differ significantly from expectations.
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⚠️ Risk Reminder
Market volatility may create potential trading opportunities, but it also increases risk. Clients should manage position size, leverage, spreads and overall exposure carefully, especially around FOMC communications, energy inventory data and periods of lower liquidity.
Market review period: 28 June – 4 July 2026. Economic outlook period: 5 July – 11 July 2026. Information is based on major financial news reports, official economic release schedules and market data available at the time of preparation.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
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